You Have No Cards. . .
“You Have No Cards”
Again and again Trump used that phrase. “You have no cards.” And Zelensky responded, we are not playing cards. He was correct. That said, it will be debated certainly this weekend, and I suspect a long time after whether Zelensky was foolish or naïve to not come into that meeting and simply accept whatever was put on the table and then renegotiate the deal when they are away from the glare of television and internet cameras, some place where they could actually talk. Perhaps.
I guess I have to say in response to that debate, probably not. Trump put on the table again and again his position. Zelensky and the Ukrainians simply had no cards. They had nothing to put on the table. They had no cards. So, in the end, with or without the glare of cameras, Zelensky was done before he stated. At least in that room, with that audience.
It illustrates that our “Dealmaker”, the man who wrote The Art of the Deal has learned nothing. It illustrates that a businessman is not necessarily a good political dealmaker, much less a good diplomat, one who negotiates geo-political deals. Trump once again failed.
It was Trump who negotiated a peace between the Taliban and the Afghan state. A deal that Biden chose to accept or tolerate so as to just get the hell out of there. You can blame it all on Biden if you want, but Trump did no one any favors negotiating only with the Taliban and leaving the Afghan state out of negotiations. They, too it seems had no cards. It was it seems easier to negotiate a deal with Taliban, if the Afghan State was excluded. And what proceeded to happen? The Afghan state folded like the proverbial cheap suit. It just collapsed. Trump in this case had given all the cards to the Taliban, at least for the time. And today, with Trump’s deal and Biden’s decision to live with it, we have the Taliban in Afghanistan.
And yes, we lost American lives in in those final days in Kabul. It could be argued that if he had propped them up just a little bit, we might have given ourselves enough time to depart safely, without casualties. If he had spent the time to include them in those final negotiations, perhaps we might have something different from what we have today. Perhaps. But regardless, he simply saw the Afghan state as not having any cards with the consequent that we lost American lives, we have a failed state in Afghanistan today, and we have the Afghani people enduring such.
In the Israeli Palestinian conflict Trump and his son in law, in Trump’s last administration, chose likewise to not negotiate with the Palestinians. They too had no cards. Those negotiations went nowhere and today we have him talking of moving the Gazans out of Gaza. They have no cards. Neither the Palestinians nor the Gazans have anything to offer Trump. The Israelis have largely seen both in the same light and no doubt the Palestinians see the Israelis similarly. Each seeing the other as having nothing to offer. And here we are.
Having no cards is meaningful if you are playing cards. The term might be useful in business, though I suspect even there it is short sighted. The term betrays who Trump is. We routinely say that he is transactional. It is always for Trump a question of what can you do for me today? What can I get out of the deal? He is really unable to see who he is negotiating with. He is blind to the fact that he is negotiating with another. He can only see what is on the table. It is a blind spot in his vision which we have now witnessed multiple times.
It ignores the fact that he is negotiating with human agents with long memories and who will return the favor sooner or later. Forget the arguments from Augustine’s Christian charity or Jefferson’s claim that all are created equal, which in the end are one and the same claim. Forget all of that for the moment.
Zelensky had it right. To treat one as having no cards today most likely will involve payback if not tomorrow then the next day. There will be a cost to the nation that ignores or discounts another group or nation. Unless you eliminate that group, you need to deal with them. You need to acknowledge them as a people. Otherwise, it will cost you. They are not going away. They do not just disappear.
Move from the geopolitical to the political and it gets interesting. His supporters, those who consider themselves MAGA he recognized. He saw them, or perhaps it was they who saw him, and he saw only an opportunity. Look at those who leave the movement. He quickly denounces them and has no use for them. They are seen often as dogs, as nothing. Turncoats. Traitors. He sees simply those who are loyal and those who are not and really plays both.
Regarding those who are not loyal, they become enemies. They not only have no cards but become part of the table. You see that with illegals, transpeople, likewise the Palestinians and now the Ukrainians. Those with nothing to offer, those with no cards are moved to the table itself. They become part of the pot and fought over, acquired by those with cards to play.
So again, regarding this weekend’s debate and whether Zelensky played well or poorly the hand he was given, it really does not matter. Trump sees the man and his country as nothing. Nothing more than rare earth mineral rights. That and a delusional claim that the US has given Zelensky and Ukraine $350 Billion. Trump was at least right on the detail of it not being a loan. It reminds me that Roosevelt came up with a lend lease program prior to entering World War II so as to appease another group of Republicans. Another group who chose to see the world as a card game, as those who have and others who do not have cards to play, but we are not playing cards.
