Democrats wandering in the wilderness. . .
I caught Shields and Brooks, (actually it is now Capehart and Brooks, whoever. . . ) last night on the News Hour. In the course of their weekly discussion, they talked of the fate of the Democrats. What will they, the Democrats, do? How bad is their situation? This is not the first place I have heard such. The Democrats today are routinely the butt of jokes.
The big item is that minorities and the working class are leaving the Democratic Party. Rather they left. That is what we are being told. Regarding minorities I think that trend is in process. It is in process and could happen.
Regarding the working class or what is left of it? They are gone. The seeds were planted for them to eventually move on in the nineties when Clinton proceeded to support NAFTA. It took 20 plus years, but they are gone. When the US embraced free trade and started allowing cheap foreign labor to compete in US markets, the US factory worker lost. You can argue that the US overall did well with free trade, but that achievement of becoming a post-industrial nation was done at the cost of our factories and our factory workers.
Today, the gold ring is the bringing back of manufacturing. Good luck. I was of the mind that Biden’s approach was the best. He basically was buying off the corporations. He basically paid for their new facilities and helped them staff them. He basically was funding their new facilities. The problem with that approach is the cost. I would suggest that the inflation we experience is certainly due in part to Biden’s industrial project, both the Chip act and likewise parts of his Inflation Reduction Act.
People had no use for either of those acts. I suspect they will pay off to some degree but only time will tell. They probably will allow us to produce computer chips in the US and likewise diversify our energy grid, embracing clean energy. The consequence of these bills today, however, was inflationary.
What, however, is the alternative? Trump offers us Tariffs. Historically known for trade wars and largely responsible for the Great Depression, but memories are short and selective. Will they bring back manufacturing? I doubt it. In the 19th century labor was abundant, and industrial waste — pollution was not a thing. Our shortage of labor and our appreciation of clean air and water will most likely prohibit the return of manufacturing. Tariffs, for my money, ignoring the history I point to above, still must overcome these two huge costs, labor and environmental costs.
I just do not see manufacturers who currently have facilities abroad deciding to build new facilities over here when they cannot find the required staff to fill them, and an American system that will take years to break ground, because we do value clean air and water. Even if we gut the regulation, we will not eliminate shyster lawyers and class action suites. Better to stay in China or Vietnam or Turkey. Perhaps set up shop in Africa.
I have digressed into industrial policy. We must. The working class is basically the working poor today. Largely. Even if we encourage these folks to return to the trades, how many plumbers and carpenters do we need? Even today’s factories, with automation, robotics, etc. do not need the numbers they once did. The question becomes what are these folks to do? Today they are with Trump and desire to destroy the deep state and get rid of immigrants. Neither will solve their problems.
So, what comes after Trump? Perhaps instead of comparisons to Hitler we should ponder Robespierre, who led all to the guillotine. Trump has no guillotine, but he is attempting to clean out the federal government and likewise eliminate illegals. If he achieves to some degree those two goals, but his tariffs as I argue above do not work, then what? Do we invade Panama and Greenland?
Now I have really wandered. This was supposed to focus on the plight of the Democrats. Where we arrive is the plight of the working poor, which includes now poor whites, blacks, Hispanics and who knows who else, versus the coastal elites, basically those with a college education. We arrive at education being the distinction between the two parties.
What becomes of the working poor? And how poor are they? Does that question matter when you consider how rich the top 10% are. Today’s poor I want to say are far richer than the poor of the 19th century. We again would have to consult a historian and that is something we are not really interested in. We are focused on the problems of today.
Going back to the original question of how the Democrats can be a contender in the next election, the formula is simple. Hold onto their college grads and get enough non-college grads to squeak by. Get enough minorities, union workers, and whoever else to make it work.
I would urge Democrats to start today. I would urge them to accept the Republicans demands. Go out and get every citizen a passport. Not for travel but to vote. I would largely let Trump deport everyone he intends on deporting, and then ask now what? Cause what he just did was bang another nail into manufacturing’s coffin. He just diminished an already diminished workforce. And he is shrinking a government that business will be looking to for assistance if they are to return.
In short, Democrats will continue to struggle, but Americans got a rocky road ahead however we proceed.
